Former President Donald Trump is holding a series of high-profile rallies across the country in the closing weeks before the midterm elections, concentrating his appearances in states with competitive Senate and gubernatorial races, according to scheduling announcements from his political operation. The events are drawing thousands of attendees and dominating cable news coverage, but internal polling reviewed by Republican strategists shows the audiences are overwhelmingly made up of voters who already planned to cast ballots for GOP candidates.
The rallies come as early voting has already begun in more than 30 states. Republican strategists say the former president's schedule is designed to boost turnout among the party's most reliable voters rather than to persuade independents or undecided voters, a group that both parties are courting in the final days. Trump has visited Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Florida in the past two weeks, with additional stops planned in Georgia, Nevada and Michigan before Election Day.
Turnout at the events has averaged between 8,000 and 15,000 people, according to crowd estimates provided by local law enforcement agencies, with the largest draw coming at a Florida event that officials estimated at more than 20,000. The appearances generate extensive local news coverage, but several Republican operatives working on down-ballot races said the rallies have not translated into measurable gains among swing voters in their internal tracking polls.
"The president's rallies are a turnout machine for people who were already going to vote," said one Republican consultant working on a Senate race in a battleground state, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe private polling. "The persuadable voters we need are watching local news, not flying to a rally."
Democratic candidates in several of the targeted states have used the rallies as fundraising hooks, sending supporters text messages and emails within hours of each event. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee reported a spike in online donations on the days Trump has appeared in competitive states, though the committee did not release specific dollar figures.
Trump has hinted at a 2024 presidential run at nearly every stop, telling crowds in Ohio and Arizona that an announcement would come "soon" without specifying a date. Advisers have said publicly that any formal campaign launch would wait until after the midterms conclude.
Early voting data compiled by state election offices shows more than 12 million ballots already cast nationwide as of this week, with Republicans holding a narrow edge in several states that expanded early voting access since 2020. The final round of Trump's midterm schedule is expected to conclude with an event in a state he won in 2020, according to two people familiar with the planning.
